Conventional wisdom would suggest that such a dramatic shift in filing volumes should translate into corresponding changes in prosecution revenues within a few years, given the typical 3-5 year lifecycle from filing through examination to acceptance. However, publicly available financial information, particularly for the listed IPH group, has not shown the revenue declines one might expect from a 30% reduction in new filings. This apparent paradox raises questions about what is actually happening within the Australian patent prosecution system, and whether current revenue patterns are sustainable or merely a temporary phenomenon masking an inevitable adjustment.
By analysing detailed prosecution event data from IP Australia covering FY2013-25, including filing volumes, examination requests, examination reports, and acceptances across different firm groups, this article reveals a remarkable story. The data shows how factors largely outside the control of attorney firms – particularly IP Australia's examination capacity, backlog management, and recent productivity changes – have temporarily insulated the consolidated groups from the full commercial impact of their declining market share. The findings have significant implications for understanding current industry dynamics and, more critically, for assessing the medium-term prospects of different participants in the Australian patent attorney market.
